Meeting the Challenge:After decades of decline in per capita food production, a new global optimism has
emerged about the prospects for Africa and African agriculture. Recent results show that growth in agriculture and in the economy as a whole has outpaced population growth in many countries, armed
conflicts have been reduced, regional and sub-regional institutions are being strengthened, and good progress has been made in developing a more welcoming business environment. Across the continent,
there is consensus that agriculture has enormous potential for growth thanks to Africa’s abundant natural resources.

As the economic crisis that has gripped the world’s more developed markets eases, new and improved market opportunities are expected to arise for African farmers in traditional as well as non-traditional agricultural exports, through products such as biomass feedstocks for bioenergy production.  Greater connectivity between people and an increase in urban populations point to domestic and intra-African markets as the most promising areas for stimulating medium-to long-term agricultural growth.  Thanks in part to a booming population and increased urbanistion, several countries have opportunities for expansion into high-value, labour-intensive products for both regional and international markets.

This strong potential of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is welcome news: agriculture is the backbone of overall growth for the majority of countries in the region and essential for poverty reduction and food
security. But, as pointed out by the 2008 World Development Report, failure to exploit this potential has significantly compromised the role agriculture could play in reducing poverty.

Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa has responded to a better macroeconomic environment, and improved price incentives brought about by inter alia reduced “taxation” of agriculture and higher world prices.
The negative rate of protection for Africa as a whole improved from about minus 20 percent in 1975-79 to less than minus 10 percent in the first half of the present decade, and to near zero in 2005. However,
this was the easier part of the challenge. In the future, the positive prospects for Africa’s agriculture will not materialise without concerted and purposeful policy action, especially if agricultural growth is to be sustained and if it is to result in substantial poverty reduction. There are many challenges to overcome, including the widening technology divide, slow development of input and output markets and associated
market services, slow progress in regional integration, governance and institutional shortcomings in some countries, conflicts, HIV-AIDS and other diseases.

One way to counteract these is by connecting smallholders to markets and helping them to adapt to new conditions and become more productive, increasing opportunities for rural employment, reducing
risk and vulnerability, especially to extreme weather events and price swings.  Increasing access to assets and skills will also help ensure that agricultural and rural growth goes hand in hand with
poverty reduction.

Tackling the Issues
The food crisis trap that threatens the African continent is primarily the result of lack of investment in the agricultural sector. Its vulnerability to climate changes further complicates the situation. Farming in Africa is predominantly reliant on rain-fed irrigation, and the continent’s dependence on agriculture coupled with the vagaries of its highly variable and changing climate, places agricultural practices at the mercy
of the weather. Despite abundant natural water supplies at the continental level, the supply is not evenly distributed and so far, the majority of African farmers have been unable to intensify their agricultural production through irrigation and improved water management (water harvesting and storage).

Another difficulty is that less than a quarter of the total land area of sub-Saharan Africa in fact suitable for rain-fed crop production, is used in this way. It is estimated that the potential additional land area available for cultivation amounts to more than 700 million ha. Experts point in particular to the Guinea Savannah region â€" an area twice as large as that planted with wheat worldwide. Only 10 percent of the Guinea Savannah â€" covering an estimated 600 million hectares â€" is farmed. The agro-ecological conditions are rather similar to the Cerrado region of Brazil, which has been an engine of agricultural
growth in that country. Whilst a good idea in theory, in practice it must be recognised that to fully benefit from the opportunity to utilise this natural resource by opening up new farmlands, enormous investments in infrastructure and technology are required, as are appropriate safeguards to avoid potential negative environmental impact.

Connecting with the Technology
A fundamental challenge in achieving productivity growth in Africa is the variety of agro-ecological environments and farming systems (also a result of weather variability and dependence on rain), and the large number of staples it produces. Under such conditions, possibilities for application of existing yield-increasing technologies or the massive application of new ones is limited.

However, success stories of technology generation (NERICA rice for instance) do exist and lessons should be drawn from such successes. The lower yield gains associated with high-yielding varieties tested out in sub-Saharan Africa versus those same varieties in other regions, are partly as a result of the inadequacies of input and output markets, extension services and poor infrastructure. This has led to a vicious circle emerging, with a low use of irrigation, fertilizers, advanced seeds and pesticides. Despite the much higher need for agricultural research, particularly research into adaptation to climate change, the continent has been slow to significantly invest in agricultural research and development.
Some experts advise that Africa should look at ways of taking advantage of the potential possibilities
that may be offered by biotechnology, including transgenic crops that are proved to be safe, while recognising the existence of legal, economic, social and political barriers to the development of genetically modified crops. Conservation Agriculture could also offer a unique opportunity in certain
regions, given the current infrastructure, capital and labour situation in these areas.

Taking Care of the Little Guy
Globally, food systems are being transformed into integrated, more knowledgebased, capital-intensive chains.  Cheaper capital, the introduction of new technologies and higher opportunities for offfarm
employment, are factors that work towards changing the optimal size of farms in favour of larger holdings. Within the African continent, smallholders lack a comparative advantage in that larger commercial farms are better placed to handle the process of managing risks associated with adoption
of new technologies and the diffusion of knowledge. The result may be over time an increase in the average farm size, land consolidation, increased commercialisation of agriculture and possible migration out of the sector. As part of this evolutionary process, small-scale farmers will be under
increased pressure to adapt. This points to the urgent need for programmes and policies to increase the capacity of smallholders and independent farmers to boost their productivity and begin competing for a share of the more dynamic sectors for national, regional and international markets.  Such  programmes include awareness and capacity building, reductions in transaction costs due to small volumes and perishability, facilitating the creation of farmers’ organizations and other forms of business
associations to ensure a minimum optimal scale, and the control of quality and safety of food.

Encouraging Investment
At the moment, much of Sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture is grossly undercapitalized, with capital per person working in agriculture being much less than in other developing regions. This reflects both
insufficient investment as well as rapid growth in the region’s rural population.

It is a cause for concern because many countries with the highest prevalence and greatest depth of hunger are located within this region. Insufficient investment in agricultural production value chain development and support services can have a severely detrimental impact on the food security of the majority of the poor, who live below the bread line in rural areas and depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. There is a need for substantial investment in public goods that support agriculture, notably research and extension, irrigation and power supply, rural roads, storage facilities, education and health care. Given the region’s low population density, infrastructure connecting farmers to markets is costly and therefore, public-sector investment is essential. A favourable investment climate
calls for well-functioning institutions that effectively allocate and protect property rights, promote trading, reduce risk and facilitate collective action.

Another issue that impacts investment, is the fact that many of the least developed countries in Africa have become increasingly dependent on imported food in recent decades. This dependency may not be a serious issue per se, so long as other export sectors can be developed to generate revenue to pay for food imports, but in many instances this has not been achieved. Consumers in these countries may have benefited from the low prices of imported food resulting from, inter alia, OECD farm subsidies, but the recent price spikes felt worldwide, demonstrated the precariousness of this position, while at the same time highlighting the challenges farmers (especially small farmers) in developing countries face in trying to expand production in response to higher prices. Projections to 2050 tend to confirm that this import dependency will continue in many African countries, which need to find ways of ensuring that they can pay for their imports, or through increased investment and better planning, can be encouraged
to grow their own food.

Preparing for Climate Change
In the years leading to 2050, climate change is expected to affect most regions of Africa negatively through increased frequency of extreme events like floods and droughts, but it will also open new opportunities in some regions where rainfall and other climate parameters may improve. Other opportunities may also arise from the possibility of carbon trading and offset models. Climate models are not yet sufficiently well developed within the African continent to accurately predict what would happen region by region with sufficient certainty to engage in detailed planning. Regardless, climate
change should be mainstreamed into general agricultural and risk mitigation agendas, and capacities for agricultural technology development should be enhanced. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that adaptation to climate change could cost Africa some 5 to 10 percent of its gross domestic product.  The Panel report also predicted that climate change could cause potential crop yields from rain-fed agriculture to decline by 50 percent in some African countries.

Feeding Africa
Ultimately, the goal of any agricultural development on the continent is narrowing the nutrition gap within areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the difference between actual and optimal intake is greatest, and the incidence of undernourishment is highest. This is imperative. Improved food security must occur in conjunction with improved nutrition security which refers to the “quality” component of food production, consumption and physiological need. Advances in agriculture are typically framed in terms of narrowing the gap between current and potential production yields.  However, there is another type of gap that
exists, the “nutrition gap” which refers to

• increasing availability and access to the foods necessary for a healthy diet 
•  increasing actual intake of those foods.

Agriculture has the greatest potential and role to play closing this gap. And, thereby helping to alleviate poverty and improving the food and nutrition situation of vulnerable rural communities throughout the
continent. As such, nutrition security objectives should be taken into consideration within the design and implementation of any agricultural development initiatives within Africa in the next few years. This is the only way to ensure that potential opportunities to improve nutrition are identified and exploited, improving and extending life for people across the world’s most resource-rich continent.